Market-path research — 4 Sep 2026 17:55 Europe/London

<!-- AGENT VIEW ONLY.
This file is the working recon note (directory/*.md).
Do NOT copy this dump onto founder-view-path-research-*.md.
Founder Evidence is narrative plus chain. HTTP inventories stay here.
-->

# Market-path research — 4 Sep 2026 17:55 Europe/London

Not a P move. No path named. No customer named.
Did not re-read Companies House company 16892858.
Did not repeat last recon hours as primary: Passion Capital (4 Sep 16:55 Companies in the space); Wayra (4 Sep 13:55 Market scenarios); Connect Ventures (4 Sep 12:55 Companies in the space); StepChange (4 Sep 11:55 Competitor mapping); Hoxton Ventures (4 Sep 10:55 Companies in the space); Techstars (4 Sep 09:55 Market scenarios); MMC Ventures (4 Sep 06:55 Companies in the space); ASA / CAP (4 Sep 04:55 Risk reduction); Rape Crisis England & Wales (4 Sep 03:55 Competitor mapping); LocalGlobe (4 Sep 02:55 Companies in the space); Digital Catapult (4 Sep 01:55 Market scenarios); Balderton Capital (3 Sep 19:55 Companies in the space); Tech Nation (3 Sep 18:55 Market scenarios); ONS BICS Wave 163 (3 Sep 16:55 Market discovery); ONS Average weekly earnings (3 Sep 01:55); ONS Vacancies (2 Sep 11:55); ONS labour-market overview (2 Sep 00:55); ONS Business demography 2024 (27 Aug 15:04); DBT BPE 2025 (27 Aug 19:55); CH April–June 2026 (31 Aug 04:55). Do not re-use those hosts as primary.
Previous filed hour 16:55 EXISTS (market-path-research-2026-09-04-1655.md Passion Capital) — not FAIL. Previous 13:55 EXISTS (Wayra) — not FAIL. No 15:55 fire — already noted at 16:55; not FAIL (Progressive-plan only). 14:55 skipped (no reply by 16:25) — not re-asked. 08:55 already skipped — not re-asked. 17:15 close is a separate routine — not stolen this hour.
Did not unpark/install customer cut 63e813ea. Did not write kpis/p-evidence.md. Did not invent a buyer from the VAT/PAYE stock, from professional/scientific/technical share, or from London's 19.7% of businesses. Did not install the 12:48 productised hour-menu as a path. Did not invent numbers. Did not open 16892858. No UK Companies House company number printed on ONS pages opened this hour — CH not opened. Did not fake an unpublished ONS activity-size-and-location 2026 bulletin: next release prints To be announced; the live latest is 2025.
No Progressive-plan row for this hour → standing recon 26e4abb6. Hour label 17:55. Not a decision point (08:55/14:55 only; both windows already closed).

Area: Market discovery.
Verdict: stayed thin as a path.
P unchanged.
Primary host: ONS UK business; activity, size and location: 2025 (www.ons.gov.uk …/bulletins/ukbusinessactivitysizeandlocation/latest → /2025) — SIZE/CONDITIONS of the UK VAT and/or PAYE registered business stock from the Inter-Departmental Business Register snapshot 14 March 2025. Preferred lived — no fallback needed. UK Finance data-and-research HTTP 403 and Bank of England Monetary Policy Report August 2026 HTTP 404 left unused because preferred lived. ONS Business demography quarterly April to June 2026 and ONS GDP monthly latest later returned HTTP 429 this hour — unused; preferred already lived.

## Why this hour
Destination is the $2.5–5bn company; the first-customer cut (63e813ea) remains parked; the live middle gate is that path candidates still cannot be compiled (e834b2f2: 0 candidates, reach blocker). After 16:55 Companies in the space (Passion Capital), this hour rotates to **Market discovery** on the unused preferred UK VAT/PAYE business-stock bulletin that earlier hours refused to invent as a 2026 release. Preferred ONS 2025 bulletin lived HTTP 200 — used as primary. Hold = no invention, not no recon. A stock count is not a FYJ path. Not P.

## Searched
Primary: ONS UK business; activity, size and location: 2025. Lived. Did not invent a fallback. UK Finance and BoE MPR August 2026 left unused because preferred lived. Quarterly demography Apr–Jun 2026 and GDP monthly later 429 — unused.

## HTTP inventory
### ONS UK business; activity, size and location 2025 primary cluster (lived)
- https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/business/activitysizeandlocation — GET with browser-like UA → HTTP 200 size 45537 content-type text/html;charset=utf-8. Title: Activity, size and location - Office for National Statistics. Spotlight names UK business; activity, size and location: 2025 and Business demography, quarterly, UK: April to June 2026 as related publications (quarterly left unused).
- https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/business/activitysizeandlocation/bulletins/ukbusinessactivitysizeandlocation/latest — HTTP 200 size 95322. Canonical path /…/ukbusinessactivitysizeandlocation/2025. Title: UK business; activity, size and location - Office for National Statistics. H1: UK business; activity, size and location: 2025. Release date: 24 September 2025. Next release: To be announced. Contact: Business Registers Strategy and Outputs team idbrdas@ons.gov.uk / +44 1633 456902.
- https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/business/activitysizeandlocation/bulletins/ukbusinessactivitysizeandlocation/2025 — HTTP 200 size 95322 (same bulletin).
- https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/business/activitysizeandlocation/bulletins/ukbusinessactivitysizeandlocation/2025/pdf — HTTP 200 size 420307 application/pdf;charset=utf-8.
- https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/business/activitysizeandlocation/datasets/ukbusinessactivitysizeandlocation — HTTP 200 size 128579. Title: UK business: activity, size and location. Dataset from IDBR snapshot 14 March 2025.
- https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/business/activitysizeandlocation/methodologies/ukbusinessactivitysizeandlocationqmi — HTTP 200 size 80911. Title: UK business; activity, size and location QMI.
- https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus — HTTP 200 size 34559. Title: About us - Office for National Statistics. No UK Companies House company number printed — CH not opened.
- Guessed file URI PDF HTTP 404 size 27369: /file?uri=/businessindustryandtrade/business/activitysizeandlocation/bulletins/ukbusinessactivitysizeandlocation/2025/ukbusinessactivitysizeandlocation2025.pdf
- Named short paths HTTP 404 size 27061: /…/activitysizeandlocation/privacy ; /contact ; /fees. Hub-short /business/activitysizeandlocation HTTP 404 size 102955. GOV.UK /uk-business-activity-size-location HTTP 404 size 52434. /…/activitysizeandlocation/2026 first GET HTTP 404 size 27061; a later GET HTTP 429 size 17 (not treated as a missing 2025 bulletin — 2025 latest already lived). /robots.txt HTTP 404 size 101929.
- Later this hour HTTP 429 size 17 (rate-limit; not treated as missing 2025 bulletin): previousreleases; /2024; quarterly demography latest; quarterly demography apriltojune2026; GDP monthly latest.
- Unused because preferred lived: UK Finance https://www.ukfinance.org.uk/data-and-research HTTP 403 size 403 Access Denied; Bank of England https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-report/2026/august-2026 HTTP 404 size 60121 (error/404.html).
- Did not invent a 2026 activity-size-and-location bulletin. Did not open 16892858.

## What stands
- Live ONS UK business; activity, size and location: 2025 cluster: hub 45537; latest=/2025 95322; PDF 420307; dataset 128579; QMI 80911; aboutus 34559.
- Printed: 2.73 million VAT and/or PAYE businesses in the UK as of March 2025, +0.4% from March 2024; Table 1 total 2,734,615 (2024 2,724,770). Companies including building society 2,096,600 (+1.8%; 76.7% of total). Sole proprietor 380,520 (−4.1%; 13.9%). Partnership 160,865 (−3.9%; 5.9%). Non-profit body or mutual association 84,000 (−5.3%).
- 3.2 million sites (local units) as of March 2025, +0.2% from 2024 — first increase in sites since 2021; Table 5 local units 3,180,620; 58,175 businesses operate from more than one site; 2,676,440 single-site.
- Largest industry group still professional, scientific and technical, 15.3% of registered businesses. Of 2.1 million companies, 44.0% are single-employee limited companies.
- Snapshot of the Inter-Departmental Business Register on 14 March 2025. Release 24 September 2025. Next release To be announced.
- SIPP/SSAS VAT registrations (just over 5,000) removed from the register in the first half of 2025 and no longer treated as businesses — main driver of the finance and non-profit falls.
- Coverage is VAT and/or PAYE registered enterprises. The bulletin itself points at DBT Business population estimates for unregistered coverage — already filed 27 Aug 19:55; not re-read as primary.
- How-large-is-the-registered-business-stock lane next to BPE 2025, CH April–June 2026, ONS demography 2024, BICS, labour-market, AWE, vacancies — IDBR VAT/PAYE stock, not a FYJ market path.
- Preferred lived — no fallback. No UK CH number printed — CH not opened.

## What does not stand
- No page names a FYJ customer, market, offer, or P.
- A VAT/PAYE stock count is not a FYJ market path.
- Naming "FYJ for the 2.73 million VAT/PAYE businesses" or "FYJ for professional, scientific and technical" is inventing a customer — banned.
- 2026 activity-size-and-location bulletin does not exist on the live latest path (next release To be announced). Do not invent it.
- Who / why / how / next all missing. Compile stays 0 (e834b2f2); the reach blocker is not closed by filing another size/conditions stock.

## End-to-end test
- Who it is for: missing.
- Why they would pay: missing.
- How FYJ reaches them: missing.
- What sits next: missing.
No real public fact this hour filled any of the four. Do not invent the rest. ONS UK business; activity, size and location: 2025 fills a Market discovery cell as SIZE/CONDITIONS of the VAT/PAYE registered stock after Passion Capital Companies in the space. It does not fill a path cell.

## Value-forming
Market discovery now has the named 2025 activity-size-and-location bulletin that earlier hours refused to invent as 2026. Value has not started to form as a FYJ path. A stock count is not who / why / how / next. Verdict: stayed thin as a path.

## Result
No path named yet. Market discovery stayed thin as a path. P unchanged.
Compile stays 0. Blocker still reach. Cut 63e813ea parked. Hermes parked. Slot unchanged. Layer unchanged (Peer toggle: Founder View ↔ Agent View).
Confirmation: Contract UUID 26e4abb6-3b66-4a66-a4f7-d4c065ad9233 is live. Hold = no invention, not no recon. Preferred ONS 2025 bulletin lived. Primary host this hour: www.ons.gov.uk …/ukbusinessactivitysizeandlocation/2025 (2.73 million VAT/PAYE businesses as of March 2025; snapshot 14 March 2025; release 24 September 2025; next To be announced; no UK CH number printed — CH not opened). No path named. P unchanged. Customer cut parked.
14:55 skipped (no reply by 16:25) — not re-asked. 08:55 already skipped — not re-asked. Previous filed hour 16:55 EXISTS — not FAIL. No 15:55 fire — already noted; not FAIL.